The US Wants to Ban Betting on Injuries and Refs. What It Tells Canada.
On June 10, 2026, the body that regulates US financial markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), proposed rules that would bar prediction markets like Kalshi from offering "event contracts" on some of the most sensitive moments in sport: player injuries, officiating decisions, in-game altercations and youth sporting events. Read that list again. A US financial regulator is, in effect, conceding that letting people trade contracts on whether a player gets hurt or a ref makes a call is a problem. For Canadian readers, the more interesting question is why this is even up for debate, when Canada settled it years ago.
What the CFTC actually proposed
The draft rules would prohibit a defined set of sports event contracts, including:
- Officiating outcomes, contracts that turn on a referee's decision.
- Player injuries, whether an injury happens, and how serious it is.
- Physical altercations during a game, and youth sporting events.
- In-game props, what the CFTC calls "discrete-action contracts involving specific participants."
The proposal opened a 45-day public comment period. CFTC Chairman Selig framed it as building "a durable, transparent framework to identify the contracts Congress directed us to scrutinize," and the agency argued that event contracts are "more likely to be contrary to the public interest when any meaningful information about whether the underlying event will occur is unavailable to the broader market." In plainer terms: nobody outside a locker room knows whether a player will be hurt, which makes a tradable contract on it ripe for abuse.
Why this is a big deal in the US
Prediction markets have exploded in the US by leaning hard into sport. By one Pew Research estimate, roughly 80% of Kalshi's trading volume since mid-2024 has been sports-related, not elections, not interest rates, sports. The platforms insist these are federally regulated financial "swaps," not bets, an argument that has so far let them operate nationwide while sidestepping state gambling laws.
That is exactly what makes the CFTC's list so pointed. The American Gaming Association's president, Bill Miller, called the proposal "a remarkable attempt to redefine what constitutes sports betting", and members of Congress have separately pressed the agency to rein the markets in. When the financial regulator starts carving out injuries and officiating, it is implicitly admitting that at least some of these contracts are sports wagers wearing a trench coat.
When a markets regulator starts banning bets on injuries and refs, it is admitting those "contracts" were wagers all along.
Canada already settled this
North of the border, none of this is up for debate. The products the CFTC is only now trying to fence off are already illegal in Canada. Canadian securities regulators ban binary options with a term under 30 days for individuals, the exact structure a prediction-market contract uses, and have repeatedly confirmed that yes/no contracts on sports and politics are not permitted here. Canada has cleared only a narrow set of forecast contracts on economic and financial indicators; sports were never on the table.
So while the US argues, case by case, over whether a contract on a touchdown is "trading" or "gambling," Canada treats the answer as obvious: betting on a sports outcome is gambling, and gambling is regulated by the provinces. The CFTC proposal is, in a sense, the US slowly arriving at a destination Canada reached a long time ago.
What it means for how you bet in Canada
In practice, Canada gives you one legal route to a sports wager, and it is not a prediction market:
- In Ontario, an iGaming Ontario-registered sportsbook, audited by the AGCO.
- Elsewhere, a provincial lottery product (such as PROLINE+) or the operators launching in Alberta's new regulated market.
- These come with operator accountability, segregated funds, deposit limits and self-exclusion, a prediction-market contract has none of it.
If a platform invites you to "trade" or "buy a contract" on a game, a player's health or a referee's call, that is not a regulated Canadian gambling product, and after June 10 it may not even be a legal US one. Stick to licensed operators; our province-by-province legality guide shows what is actually regulated where you live.
Frequently asked
What did the CFTC propose on June 10, 2026?
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed rules that would bar prediction-market "event contracts" tied to player injuries, officiating decisions, physical altercations, youth sporting events, and in-game props involving specific participants. The proposal opened a 45-day public comment period.
Does this affect Canadian players?
Not directly. These products are already banned in Canada. Canadian securities regulators prohibit binary options under 30 days and have ruled that sports and political prediction-market contracts are not permitted. The CFTC proposal is the US moving toward a line Canada drew years ago.
How can I legally bet on sports in Canada?
Only through a provincially regulated channel: an iGaming Ontario-registered sportsbook in Ontario, a provincial lottery sports product such as PROLINE+, or the regulated operators launching in Alberta. These sit inside the gambling framework, with operator accountability, segregated funds and a complaints path. A prediction-market "contract" on a game has none of that and is not legal to offer in Canada.
Why does it matter that prediction markets are "financial products" and not bets?
Labelling a sports wager as a financial "event contract" lets a platform sidestep gambling regulation, the licensing, player-protection and responsible-gambling rules that licensed sportsbooks must follow. The CFTC's proposal, and the American Gaming Association's reaction to it, show that even in the US the line between the two is now openly contested. In Canada, that line is settled: sports outcomes are gambling, regulated by the provinces.
This article is general information, not legal or financial advice. The CFTC proposal is open for public comment and not yet final; details are as reported by the CFTC and industry press, June 2026. 19+. Play responsibly, ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.